Hillary: The Check's in the mail. Honest.

Pressure from supporters of Barack Obama on Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race may be having an effect. Unless she implodes and loses in Pennsylvania and Indiana, Clinton appears to be committed to dragging out the process at least until early June when the primaries and caucuses are over. But the more Obama Nation can make her look like a spoiler, the harder it will be for her to keep a steady infusion of the lifeblood of politics: money.

Case in point-- Politico reports that Hillary Clinton's campaign didn't pay health insurance bills.

Aides are downplaying the revelation as you might expect, but it hints at larger problems that may be coming in terms of the massive expenditures required to keep the Clinton political machine running.

It's embarrassing on several levels.

Clinton has made health care a central feature of her campaign and even though aides say the actual coverage of campaign staff and their families have not been affected, it suggests attending to health care for the people who work for her isn't a top priority.

The unpaid bills also undermine her "Ready on Day 1" argument. Running a campaign is a lot easier than running he country and if you can't make sure the bills are paid on time the same way anyone running a small business has to do, it raises questions about your management skills.

Nothing seems likely to stop Barack Obama's endless supply of campaign donations, but if Clinton's money starts drying up, it could accelerate the process toward the all but inevitable conclusion of this race-- that she loses.

We are Clinton. Resistance is Futile.

Just when you wonder what will help fill this vast seven week void between primaries leading up to Pennsylvania on April 22, the internet comes to the rescue again.

Hillary's campaign operated with ruthless cyborg efficiency (at least until anyone got a chance to vote) so it was inevtiable that the Clinton poilitical machine was compared with the Borg, a race of technogicallly enhanced human machine hyrbids with a decidely Clintonian mantra: "We are borg. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated. You will service us."

Enough from me. Watch the video. The joke at the end won't make sense unless you've seen the Sarah Silverman, Matt Damon and Jimmy Kimmel video.

Warning, there's adult language in these.

Shooting Blanks: Hillary Under Fire

I've had a gun pointed at me on two occasions by people I thought might actually pull the trigger. I can tell you exactly when and where it happened because the circumstances are crystal clear in my memory, unlike a vast majority of other events.

Fortunately, I've never been shot at by snipers, but I suspect I would remember the details precisely if it had happened. Unlike Roger Clemens testimony to Congress about use of performance enhancing chemicals, this type of event would seem unlikely to be "misremembered."

Apparently that's not the case for the truth-challenged Senator from New York.

Hillary Clinton told a story at a recent campaign stop that seemed designed to demonstrate her toughness and foreign policy experience.

"I remember landing under sniper fire," Clinton said, recalling a March 1996 visit to the Tuzla airport, in Bosnia. "There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base,"

A gripping tale. Too bad it isn't true. A CBS News Video shows what really happened. Accompanied by daughter Chelsea, she is greeted by a little girl and walks casually across the tarmac.

Clinton aides say she "misspoke." In a world where everything is videotaped and posted on the internet you'd think that someone who's trying to persuade us she has the judgement to answer that 3 a.m. phone call would realize that you can't play fast and loose with the facts.

Do you really think the Secret Service would allow the First Lady and her daughter to run from a helicopter while they were under fire from snipers? I have dealt with the Secret Service when covering the President and Vice President on many occasions, I can tell that type of scenario is just not going to happen.

Even if it did, what mother would deliberately put her teenage daughter in life threatening danger? Does that show presidential caliber judgement?

"So I made a mistake," she said. "That happens. It proves I'm human, which you know, for some people, is a revelation."

Perhaps this incident is a revelation, just not the kind she's trying to spin it into.

The Circular Firing Squad

The new Democratic Party slogan might as well be: “We never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”

Barring some apocalyptic implosion by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton has only one chance to win the nomination: If the predominantly white super delegates decide to take it away from the first black candidate with a chance to become president.

Do-over votes in Michigan and Florida aren’t likely to happen, thanks in part to the influence of Obama supporters. Even if Clinton were to achieve a crushing 60-40 margin of victory in every remaining state, she’d still wind up behind Obama in delegates, number of election victories and number of votes.

Not that that scenario is even remotely probable, despite the damage inflicted by the endless loop of the video of Obama’s minister Jeremiah Wright over the past week. He’s still expected to win in North Carolina and Hillary has only won by 60 percent or more in
New York, Rhode Island and Arkansas so far.

Despite the lofty talk of exercising judgment (according to Clinton supporters) or following the will of the voters (from Obama backers) Democratic elected officials who make up most of the super delegates will do what politicians always do—whatever is in their own best interests. Risking widespread boycott of black voters, their most loyal supporters, would not seem to fit the agenda of self preservation.

So we come back to Hillary’s last and now apparently only hope, that between now and convention time a problem that makes Obama look unelectable crops up and as the only alternative, Clinton wins a last minute upset.

In the meantime, John McCain has the opportunity to look presidential. Napoleon once said “Never interrupt the enemy when he’s making a mistake.” McCain has been conspicuously absent in the recent furor over race in the democratic race.

Just when they thought they had an election that was a gimme, the democrats are now tripping over each other to see how they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Unhappy Birthday: The Iraq War Turns 5

Be angry. Be very angry.

Nearly four thousand American troops dead. At least 90,000 Iraqi civilians killed, perhaps many, many more than that, since estimates vary widely.

When you consider them as statistics, it's just numbers. Every time you read, see or hear the story of the toll the war has taken on individual lives and you muliply that pain and suffering by gthe number of people affected, it's almost impossible to wrap your mind around the truly horrendous consequnces of George W. Bush's war of choice.

And for what? The argument to justify the war has changed many times since we disocuvered the first justification, the assumption that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and would use them to attack us, turned out to be a false.

Anyone who tries to make the case that we're safer now as a result of the war really needs to prove their point because the opposite appears to be the reality of the situation. Turns out most people don't a superpower that starts wars without any provocation. That anger helps fuel the religious fanatacism that leads people to become suicide bombers.

I don't feel safer. Do you?

Then there's the money.

Three trillion dollars, according to Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz's estimate of what the war will cost when you add it all up.

Why does the Bush administration say it's only $500 billion? Stiglitz counts expenses that the White House conceals.

A professor at Columbia University, Stiglitz was the chief economist for the World Bank and, before that, the chief of President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers. His estimates are in a new book, "The Three Trillion Dollar War."

He says his figures are conservative. Among the most startling:

$600 billion that Congress has appropriated so far
$520 billion to bring home troops and equipment
$590 billion in medical and disability payments to veterans
$280 billion to restore a depleted military
$615 billion in interest for a war financed entirely by borrowing
$370 billion as the war's impact on individuals including the loss of lifetime earnings by disabled veterans, interruptions in careers for reservists and their families.


When the war began, then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld scoffed when Lawrence Lindsey, and advisor to President Bush, estimated the cost of the war at $200 billion. The Secretary of Defense called the estimate “baloney.“ Rummy’s deputy Paul Wolfowitz said Iraqi oil money could pay for reconstruction after the war.

Stiglitz’s figures assume American troops will leave Iraq in a few years. Imagine the cost of John McCain is right and the meter keeps running for another 100 years.

Toward A More Perfect Union: Yes We Can, But We Probably Won't

The difference between a leader and a politician often becomes clear in how they handle serious problems.

For Barack Obama, the crucible of his campaign to become president came this week and he proved that he is more than equal to the challenge.

In politics, when you use a word like “bold” to describe strategy or tactics, what you usually mean is “dangerous.”

Obama’s speech on race in this country was nothing if not bold.

I’ve never been optimistic that I would see meaningful change in race relations the United States in my lifetime, but now there seems to be a glimmer of hope.

In what may well be remembered as the most important speech since Martin Luther King's "I have a dream," Barack Obama moved the national conversation on race one giant leap forward today.

Will it put the controversy caused by the comments of his minister Jeremiah Wright behind him? Not completely, but it helps clarify the relationship between Obama and Wright.

"As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me.” Obama said referring to the man who has been his spiritual advisor for 20 years. "I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother – a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.”

"These people are a part of me. And they are a part of America, this country that I love."

I suspect a lot of us have grandmothers like that. I had two. The difference is that you can’t choose your family. Your religious leader is another matter. If I was a church-going type of guy, I’d look for another house of worship if the message from the pulpit was a toxic manifesto against people from different ethnic backgrounds than the preacher and against the country as a whole.

Since he began running for president, Obama has tried to rise above racial issues, but was ultimately forced to confront them head on, which is probably beneficial of the country.

"Some will see this as an attempt to justify or excuse comments that are simply inexcusable,” Obama said, “I can assure you it is not. I suppose the politically safe thing would be to move on from this episode and just hope that it fades into the woodwork. We can dismiss Reverend Wright as a crank or a demagogue, just as some have dismissed Geraldine Ferraro, in the aftermath of her recent statements, as harboring some deep-seated racial bias. "But race is an issue that I believe this nation cannot afford to ignore right now. We would be making the same mistake that Reverend Wright made in his offending sermons about America – to simplify and stereotype and amplify the negative to the point that it distorts reality.
“The fact is that the comments that have been made and the issues that have surfaced over the last few weeks reflect the complexities of race in this country that we've never really worked through – a part of our union that we have yet to perfect. And if we walk away now, if we simply retreat into our respective corners, we will never be able to come together and solve challenges like health care, or education, or the need to find good jobs for every American."

For many white people, it is probably a revelation to be given a glimpse of the conversations that take place when they're not around. Obama did not try to defend the statements made by Wright, but he did explain why the minister and many like him are so angry.

"For the men and women of Reverend Wright's generation, the memories of humiliation and doubt and fear have not gone away; nor has the anger and the bitterness of those years. That anger may not get expressed in public, in front of white co-workers or white friends. But it does find voice in the barbershop or around the kitchen table. At times, that anger is exploited by politicians, to gin up votes along racial lines, or to make up for a politician's own failings and occasionally it finds voice in the church on Sunday morning, in the pulpit and in the pews.

“The fact that so many people are surprised to hear that anger in some of Reverend Wright's sermons simply reminds us of the old truism that the most segregated hour in American life occurs on Sunday morning.

"That anger is not always productive; indeed, all too often it distracts attention from solving real problems; it keeps us from squarely facing our own complicity in our condition, and prevents the African-American community from forging the alliances it needs to bring about real change. But the anger is real; it is powerful; and to simply wish it away, to condemn it without understanding its roots, only serves to widen the chasm of misunderstanding that exists between the races."

Obama also focused on the roots of frustration among whites who often cannot understand why they are blamed for discrimination in which they played no part.

“In fact, a similar anger exists within segments of the white community. Most working- and middle-class white Americans don't feel that they have been particularly privileged by their race. Their experience is the immigrant experience - as far as they're concerned, no one's handed them anything, they've built it from scratch. They've worked hard all their lives, many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pension dumped after a lifetime of labor.

“They are anxious about their futures, and feel their dreams slipping away; in an era of stagnant wages and global competition, opportunity comes to be seen as a zero sum game, in which your dreams come at my expense. So when they are told to bus their children to a school across town; when they hear that an African American is getting an advantage in landing a good job or a spot in a good college because of an injustice that they themselves never committed; when they're told that their fears about crime in urban neighborhoods are somehow prejudiced, resentment builds over time. ”

Hopefully YouTube will get as many views of the speech as of the clips of Jeremiah Wright's sermons, but I wouldn't bet on it.

With Friends Like These....

When the history of campaign 2008 is written, we may look back at this moment and deem it was the beginning of the end of Barack Obama’s hope of becoming president.

Bill Clinton’s comments in South Carolina notwithstanding, until now Obama managed to transcend race for the most part, which may be the true “third rail” of American politics.

That part of the campaign is now only visible in the rear view mirror. Cable news and YouTube are in the midst of a feeding frenzy with video clips of Obama’s minister Jeremiah Wright making some extremely disturbing statements in his sermons.

After the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001:

"We bombed Hiroshima, we bombed Nagasaki, and we nuked far more than the thousands in New York and the Pentagon, and we never batted an eye. We have supported state terrorism against the Palestinians and black South Africans, and now we are indignant because the stuff we have done overseas is now brought right back to our own front yards. America's chickens are coming home to roost."

In a 2003 sermon, he said blacks should condemn the United States:

"The government gives them the drugs, builds bigger prisons, passes a three-strike law and then wants us to sing 'God Bless America.' No, no, no, God damn America, that's in the Bible for killing innocent people. God damn America for treating our citizens as less than human. God damn America for as long as she acts like she is God and she is supreme."

Promoting Obama's candidacy in a sermon last December:

"Barack knows what it means to be a black man to be living in a country and a culture that is controlled by rich white people. Hillary can never know that. Hillary ain't never been called a nigger."

Obama tried to put some distance between himself and his pastor, but you have to admire him for not dumping his longtime friend like a wet rag, which is what most politicians would have done.

"I have to confess that those are not statements I ever heard when I was sitting in the pews at this church,” Obama said. “These are a series of incendiary statements that I can't object to strongly enough. Had I heard those in the church, I would have told Reverend that I profoundly disagreed with them. They didn't reflect my values and they didn't reflect my ideals."

Political calculations may have played a role in addition to loyalty. The massive turnout and support Obama is getting from African American votes might be affected if he were to renounce the man as well as the message.


Wright has been a friend and spiritual advisor to Obama for at least 20 years, so it’s a bit difficult to believe that Obama never heard any of these types of very disturbing pronouncements from the pulpit.

A lot of white people who take some pride in voting for a black man who has a real shot at becoming president may start having second thoughts if these are the views of someone who clearly has a lot of influence with Obama.

Obama offers the promise of moving beyond the old racial divisions but Wright’s rhetoric threatens to embroil us all in the same old angry polemics that does little to address the problems of race in the United States in a meaningful way.

Citizens of Obama Nation have a dream, but Jeremiah Wright now threatens to turn it into a nightmare.

It’s the Economy (Again) Stupid

For people who are worried about whether defaulting on their mortgage or getting laid off, it must be infuriating when the political debate is focused on whose supporter made what controversial statement or what politician is cheating on his wife.

Barack Obama needs to start playing offense again in this campaign and stop the recent cycle where he has been relegated to responding to the controversy of the day that are of endless interest to the commentariat (myself included) but not the issues that will directly address the concerns of voters.

Every day brings a new revelation about the serious nature of economic problems in the U.S. economy. Costs for health care, college tuition, and energy are rising and threaten to trigger an increase in overall inflation. At the same time, wages have been at best stagnant for many working people.

Obama might benefit from borrowing part of John Edwards’s strategy. Edwards made more money as a lawyer than most sane people could spend in a single life time. Yet his genuine personal story of growing up in poverty, how it shaped his world view and political priorities forged a connection with voters who often feel people asking for their vote only see the real world problems of people struggling economically as an abstract policy debate.

Obama’s made some money, but like Edwards, he earned it. No one handed him his own major league baseball team, which is how George W. Bush made most of his personal fortune. Hillary Clinton wasn't born with a silver spoon in her mouth, but her father was a successful businessman and her path through life was, at least to the casual observer, probably a lot easier than Obama's. Obama could get some mileage out of drawing the contrast and using it to help showcase his economic plans.

In the meantime, John McCain has the luxury of talking about real issues, although they tend to focus on national security so he’s still missing the mark on dealing with front-burner issues for voters.

The next contest is in Pennsylvania, which shares some of the same economic challenges as Ohio and Michigan.

In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama is losing 49 to 37 percent among voters who makes less than $50,000 a year, which is most people.

It’s a long slog between now and April 22, when Pennsylvania voters go to the polls.

Hillary Clinton has started to empathize with the plight of struggling people in rust belt states, making the case that she would be able to deliver meaningful change that would help improve the financial outlook for people who aren’t rich. Obama needs to offer a convincing case why he can do the same.

Governor Spitzer's Career Gets Heave-Ho

Before he was a talk show host Jerry Springer was a politician and while he was Mayor of Cincinnati he engaged the services of a prostitute and paid her with a check that bounced.

Elliot Spitzer could have learned something from Springer that any philandering traveling salesman knows all to well: when you hire a call girl, pay cash.

I had a difficult time working my way into caring about Spitzer except for the pure Schadenfreude of the whole sordid affair. Seems like if his wife can forgive him, it’s none of anyone’s else's business. After all, Louisiana Senator David Vitter still has a job despite a prostitute’s claim that they had an affair.

Now I’ve changed my mind on Spitzer, but not because of morality. Spitzer deserved to go because he’s a dumb ass. Not that he’s not intelligent, but Spitzer has obviously demonstrated behavior that is exasperatingly stupid.

You might think that the Governor of New York was caught as a by-product of an investigation of the high-priced prostitution enterprise called Emperor's Club VIP, but no, it was actually the other way around.

Spitzer was caught as a result of routine examination of financial transactions, large and small, conducted by computer programs that pass suspicious activity along to the IRS for further review. As a Governor, Spitzer was designated as a PEP or “politically exposed person” and therefore subject to additional scrutiny.

When he was New York’s Attorney General, Spitzer was partially responsible for the implementation of these systems because he used them to gather data on Wall Street investments firms.

Across town, his friend from Emperor’s Club has been outed by the New York Times (that's her photo above):

“I just don’t want to be thought of as a monster,” the woman said as she told the tiniest tidbits of her story.

“Born Ashley Youmans but now known as Ashley Alexandra Dupré, she spoke softly and with good humor as she added with significant understatement: ‘This has been a very difficult time. It is complicated.’”

I wonder if her rates have gone up.

The Great White Hope

Some of the most poignant words of the last century came from the unlikely source of Rodney King, the black man beaten on video by white cops which triggered race riots in the 1990‘s: "Can't we all just get along?"

Throughout history, the answer to that question has clearly been no. No how, no way.

Not that a lot of people don't want that to change. And they're not all black. Not by a long shot. If you could harness liberal white guilt as a power source, we could afford to tell the Middle East what they can do with their $100 a barrel oil.

Barack Obama is without question a very able and skilled politician. He's run an extremely effective campaign against the leading brand name political machine in the democratic party and he's winning. He's also a first term senator with two years of national political experience.

Why is saying suggesting that race has something to do with his success a racist statement? Could it not rather be an expression of our collective desire to take a giant step forward in trying to put our nation's tortured race problems behind us?

Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman to run as her the democratic party's candidate for Vice President made it clear what she thinks.

"If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position," Ferraro told the Daily Breeze of Torrance, California, "and if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept."

The rise of Jack Kennedy with a similar background suggests that the nation is willing to swoon over young, good looking, articulate politicians with scant experience regardless of race. (How much experience Hillary Clinton really has is another legitimate question.)

The notion (to use a word Obama is fond of) that part of the reason so many people of all ethnic backgrounds support Obama is partially that electing a black guy president would represent such a monumental departure from our history and that's one reason why he's done so well perhaps should not be so quickly dismissed without further consideration.

Hillary Clinton said inm response to Ferraro‘s statements, "I do not agree with that, it's regrettable that any of our supporters — on both sides, because we both have this experience — say things that kind of veer off into the personal. We ought to keep this on the issues. there are differences between us" on approaches to health care, energy, experience.”

Obama senior adviser David Axelrod said Ferraro should be removed from her position with the Clinton campaign because of her comments.

"The bottom line is this, when you wink and nod at offensive statements, you're really sending a signal to your supporters that anything goes. There's no other way to send a serious signal that you want to police the tone of this campaign, and if you don't do those things then you are simply adding to the growing compendium of evidence that you really are encouraging that."

In the video clip below, Ferraro, a Fox News commentator, stood by her comments on the network today.

Alas, the more she talks, the less sense she makes, but she raises an interesting point. If we are going begin to move beyond seeing racial dynamics everywhere, we shouldn't be afraid to discuss the issue in a candid manner.

Elliot Mess: NY Governor Spitzer Caught With Pants Down

Being a politician's wife takes a special brand of moxie, especially when their husband gets nabbed in a sex scandal and the are forced to do the walk of shame and follow them out standing dutifully by their side as they face the cameras.

Silda Spitzer is the latest in a long series of women forced to endure this public humiliation as her husband, New York Governor Elliot Spitzer made a cryptic announcement following the New York Time article that linked him to a prsotitution ring.

“I have acted in a way that violates my obligation to my family and violates my or any sense of right or wrong,” said Spitzer, “I apologize first and most importantly to my family. I apologize to the public to whom I promised better.”

You'd think the whole inident is bad enough without rubbing it in by making her drink deep the ordeal live on cable news and in front of mroe than 100 reporters in person. The conventional wisdom seems to be, if his wife can put up with it, so should the rest of us, but I'd have more respect for anyone in this position if they let the Mrs skip the news conference.

Not Ready on Day 1, but Ready to be Number 2?

Since when does the person in second place offer the chance to the front winner to run for Vice President? You’re winning, so why not take second place? That’s what Hillary and Bill Clinton have been suggesting over the last couple of days.

It’s a message that’s at odds with another of Billary’s recent campaign tactics, that Obama isn’t ready to be President, not ready to take that 3 a.m. phone call if there’s another terrorist attack or some other crisis. Hard to have it both ways, either he’s qualified to be President and therefore a heartbeat away, or he’s not.

There may be increasing pressure on the loser in the race, whether it’s Clinton or Obama, to accept the VP spot. Clinton-Obama makes a lot more sense than Obama-Clinton, but I stand by my earlier prediction that it won’t happen. Hillary might hope to pick up some of the legions of young people, blacks and other voters who are now enthusiastic about the election and likely to be disafected if Hillary somehow manages to win.

Why won’t they be running mates? If you’re Obama, what’s your better bet if you lose? Say Hillary wins, then you sign on to accept all the baggage that’s likely to build up during a second Clinton White House and with Bill around, you’re not going to get much experience to enhance your already thin resume. A better bet would running for Governor of Illinois and hoping she loses a re-election bid.

If Obama wins, which still seems more likely, how can you argue that you would “turn the page” offering “new politics” if you’re running mate is the same person you spent the last few months linking to the bitter partisanship of the last 16 years?

About half of the people in this country say they wouldn’t vote for Hillary Clinton under any circumstances. She wouldn’t be an asset to Obama. If she wins the nomination, you might see some perfunctory posturing to indicate that he’s being considered, but it seems unlikely that he would accept or that she would really want him to.

How much change is the country ready for right now? I suspect both of them will want a nice solid white guy as a running mate to temper the anxiety among some voters who might want to make history, but not quite as much as having both of them on the same ticket.

Illinois Super Saturday: The First Domino to Fall?

We got a hint of the avalanche headed toward the Republicans in November in Illinois where Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis to succeed former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

The district has been reliably Republican. Hastert has won by large margins for more than 20 years but perhaps more importantly, George W. Bush won the 14th Congressional District with 55 percent of the vote in 2004 and 54 percent in 2000.

Illinois is considered to be a fairly reliable state to vote for the democratic candidate in the general election, but this race is widely seen as an indication of the huge level of frustration with the current administration and the overall status quo on a wide variety of issues.

Barack Obama campaigned for Foster. Now Obama picks up another super delegate.

“Yes We Can” vs. “Solution Not Slogans”: A Defining Moment for Obama

"I really almost feel sorry for Senator Clinton. She's trying to conduct a job interview and Obama's on a date."
Richard Land, Southern Baptist Convention

Barack Obama's first few dates went so well, he was hoping to get lucky, but now events have taken a turn for the worse.

Obama often says the election should be about judgment. We’re about to find out about his.

One way to view the recent election results that in Ohio and Texas (and yes Rhode Island) is to focus on campaign tactics and voter demographics. Hillary went negative and her voting groups of Latinos, working class, less educated and older lined up in the ways they had before Obama went 11-0 in February.

Another way to interpret the results is that voters actually considered the issues and a majority thought Clinton would do a better job delivering results. When you’re hopeless, you need more than hope; you need a job and some health care.

According to exit polls, Clinton beat Obama by 12 points among the voters who said the economy as the most important issue and by 16 points among those who cited health care.

People who can pay their bills can afford the luxury of getting swept up in a historical movement. The one’s whose unemployment checks have run out want more than lofty rhetoric.

If Obama accepts the first argument, he’ll start playing by the Clinton Rules of Engagement. Instead of telling us more about what he can do for us, he’ll start raising questions about her. The first volley came in the form of a new call for more financial disclosures from Clinton on who she and Bill owe for their newfound wealth.

Raising question about the other candidate, like is Obama qualified to handle a crisis or why Hillary won’t release the records of what she did as First Lady are legitimate, but if they suck all the oxygen out of the room and leave no space for more positive debate, that’s a problem for Obama.

The more he gets drawn into a charge and counter charge exchange with her, the more he looks like an ordinary pol and the less he appears to be the inspirational agent of change.

If Hillary drags him down to this level, and she has nothing to lose because she never laid claim to the high ground, she’s likely to take the party down with her even if she manages to win the nomination. The legions of young voters and other previously disaffected voters who have been drawn into the political process by Obama will likely be so disenchanted that they’ll go back to sitting out elections in the future.

Quite a legacy for the Clintons, so desperate to reclaim their lost power that they’ll poison the well if they can’t drink from it.

Dialing for $$$ for Michigan/Florida Do Over Primaries

Call Daddy Warbucks. That was the message from DNC chairman Howard Dean to Florida and Michigan, who held their primaries before Super Tuesday in defiance of party rules that said their delegates would be excluded from the nomination process if they cut in line in front of the states who abided by the regulations.

The cleanest way to deal with this mess would be to have another vote in each state, but that would cost as much as $25 million.

No one wanted Obama to win Texas and Ohio more than Dean so it would resolve his dilemma about what to do with Michigan and Florida. If only they had waited their turn, they would have even more focus on their issues (lagging economy and lost manufacturing jobs for Michigan and federal hurricane insurance for Florida).

Clinton won in both states so she wants them included in the nominating process, while Obama says the states broke the rules and should be punished.

Plenty of lame plans have been floated, but the one that makes the most sense is what has come to be known as the Do-Over.

Dean says the party won’t pay for it. I hear they don’t have a ton of money anyway since Hillary and Obama are scarfing up every political contribution dollar in the known universe for themselves right now. The states don’t want to pay for it either. So here we sit.

Now Dean is reminding state party officials that while campaign finance regualtions preclude the national party from raising soft money, under which there are limits on individual contributions, for bank rolling another round of primaries, the state parties are under no such restriction.

Anyone know Geore Soros’ cell phone number?

Hurry Up & Wait

It may seem like years, but it’s been 63 days since the Iowa caucuses on January 3

Think about all that’s happened in the race since then and then consider this: the next significant development in the democratic race isn’t until the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. That’s 47 days from now. That’s a long time for two candidates who agree on a vast majority of the issues to try to find ways to convince people to vote for them for more likely to vote against the other one.

So what can we expect between now and then?

-More negative campaigning. The “kitchen sink” strategy employed by the Hillary Clinton campaign of throwing every available charge at Obama was apparently successful. It was a legitimate question to raise, given Obama’s thin resume. Don’t be surprised if Obama is the Democratic nominee that you might well see McCain play the exact same ad. Even if you like Obama, that image of a huge problem with no time to consult advisors is cause for concern. If you are able to casually dismiss this, for Obama or Clinton or McCain, watch the scene in Fahrenheit 911 where President Bush continues to read along with “My Pet Goat” in a children's classroom for seven agonizing minutes after he's been told about the attacks on the World Trade Center.


-Hillary as the victim. “Golden Boy” Obama is getting a pass from the media. It looked a little pathetic to me when she invoked Saturday Night Live in the last debate, but it worked. There were a series of more invasive stories on Obama after that, which was a big plus for Clinton to co-opt the media as her partner. Maybe she’ll cry again. Whining doesn’t seem very presidential, but if it’s effective, don’t be surprised if it continues.


-Paralyzed super delegates. Georgia Congressman John Lewis switched his allegiance before the last round of voting under heavy pressure from African Americans since his district voted for Obama (not hat he thought Obama was coasting to victory). Now that it’s still a race, the supes are likely to sit on the sidelines waiting to see how this plays out, hoping their choice will be clear, which seems unlikely at this point.

-Rezko, Rezko, Rezko. Businessman Tony Reckon is going on trial. He’s a friend and contributor to Barack Obama. Obama has not been implicated in the case. In case you missed that, Obama has NOT been implicated in the case. Obama has distanced himself from Rezko, but a trial at this time between now and the Pennsylvania primary is the gift the keeps giving for Clinton. Accused of using his influence with politicians to generate illegal profit, Hillary just has to drop the name and it ramps up doubts about the politics of hope.


For political junkies it may seem to defy belief that some people actually haven’t made up their minds about who to vote for yet, but there’s still a lot of campaigning left.

Great theatre for those of us who enjoy it, but most likely a big benefit for John McCain, who can sit back and watch Hillary and Barack damage each other while he sends W out to raise money from the 30 percent of America that does not have a firm grasp of the obvious and realize what a mess the current president has made of the country.

McCain’s luck defies belief this year. Written off last summer, he’s now the nominee. If this continues, he may confound conventional wisdom and be the next president. If he’s campaigning near you, be sure to ask him for his favorite lotto numbers.

Not So Fast Hillary

They’re still counting Texas caucus results and it looks like when the dust settles, it appears as if Obama will walk away with three more delegates than Hillary Clinton. Delegates are what you need to win the nomination, but it’ hard to beat that TV image of a picture of Hillary’s smiling face with a bigger number of votes a checkmark and the word “winner” next to it.

They’ve stopped counting after about 40 % . Under the bizarre rules established by the Democratic party, it won’t be until late March when we know for sure, sort of , because then the delegates go to the state convention and can apparently change their minds. At that point, when we combine the primary votes and the caucus votes, Obama will probably be the winner.

How much you want to bet he would gladly trade those three delegates for the headlines of being a winner on primary night few weeks earlier?

Democrats' Strategy: Make McCain W’s Siamese Twin

After some Republican activists started making an issue of using Barack Obama’s middle name Hussein, Democrats came up with signature middle initial for John McCain.

Could it be…. W?

Expect the democrats to beat this to death: the Bush/McCain War, the Bush/McCain recession, Bush/McCain airline flight delays, Bush/McCain traffic jam, Bush/McCain burned your dinner and so on. Every time you hear McCain, they’ll remind you he was also W’s yes-man.

After capturing the needed delegates for the Republican nomination by making a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont, John McCain launched his general election campaign with a lofty promise.

“Our campaign must be and will be more than another tired debate of false promises, empty sound bites or useless arguments from the past that address not a single of America’s concerns for their family’s security”

Let’s hold him to that. Hopefully it will mean no more fanning the flames on fringe wedge issues. Sorry, I know it gins up righteous rage among some of my fellow Americans, but I think establishing universal health care, ending the colossal strategic blunder of the Iraq war and balancing the federal budget trumps whether a couple of guys burn a flag at their wedding.

McCain should be applauded for staking claim to an elevated level of debate. We’ll see if that extends to resorting to George W. Bush’s lexicon to defend the war. Next time you see him teeing off on the democrats on Iraq, ask yourself what defines “victory” and how many times President Bush has moved the goal posts on what our objectives are in this war that seems to have no end.

McCain dared the democrats to spell out how they will end the war without the withdrawal of American troops triggering an escalation of sectarian violence. On that front, he’s probably right. I suspect whoever the next president is, he or she will face limited options when it comes to President Bush’s war. We’ve now seen McCain back away from his statement that he’s fine with American troops staying for 100 years, so perhaps the democrats may have an impact even if they lose the election.

Obama to Canada: Wink, Wink, Nod, Nod on NAFTA

In what could be another in a series of what’s likely to be a series of disappointing revelation to citizens of Obama Nation, their fearless leader showed that he may indeed be capable of behaving like a politician.

At issue is the North American Free Trade Agreement or NAFTA, which is a contentious issue in the struggling rust belt economy of Ohio, where they’ve lost more than 200,000 jobs since George W. Bush became president. Many people there apparently blame NAFTA, so Clinton and Obama, although they both seem to have similar plans and a modestly pro-free trade policy are battling over who is filled with more righteous anger over the agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.


Canadian television network CTV reports that an Obama sent a back channel message to the Canadian government that what Obama said on the campaign trail on NAFTA should not be taken literally, that if elected, Obama would not pull out of the trade agreement.

Obama's aides denied any meeting had taken place until the Associated Press published a memo written by an employee of the Canadian consulate. According to the memo, Obama adviser Austan Goolsbee, met with officials at the Canadian consulate in Chicago.

The critical part of the memo: "Noting anxiety among many U.S. domestic audiences about the U.S. economic outlook, Goolsbee candidly acknowledged the protectionist sentiment that has emerged, particularly in the Midwest, during the primary campaign. He cautioned that this messaging should not be taken out of context and should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans."

Goolsbee’s response: "I certainly did not use that phrase in any way."

Obama now recognizes that he can’t leave this up to his aides. In Texas he said:

“When I gave you that information, that was the information that I had at the time.
It turned out that the Canadian consulate in Chicago contacted one of my advisers, Austan Goolsbee, on their own initiative, invited him down to meet with them. He went down there as a courtesy.

“And at some point, they started talking about trade and NAFTA. And the Canadian embassy has confirmed that he said exactly what I've been saying on the campaign trail, which is that I believe in trade, but that it is important for us to have labor standards and environmental standards that are enforceable and that I intend to obtain modifications and amendments to NAFTA that will make them enforceable.”

Ultimately, it’s probably in our best interests overall to keep the current treaty in place. A lot of oil Canada might prefer to sell to China than the U.S. and plenty of American exports to Canada are at stake. It’s an acknowledgement of those economic and political realities that Obama would hint that some campaign promises are made to be broken.

It’s also a reminder that Barack Obama was not born in a manger. An Obama presidency might well restore some much needed hope not only among Americans but other people around the world who are affected by what U.S. government policy, but it’s a lot more likely to look like an administration run by a politician than the utopian fantasyland envisioned by Obama’s legion of unquestioning followers

Think I’m over-stating the cult of personality? Watch the video below.